What the Fudge?
ADP reports that job growth slows in September: Yglesias says it shows that QE3 is already working!
People, I am not making this up.
Here's the deal: Today, ADP reported 162,000 new jobs for September. It also reported that August's number had been revised to 189,000. Thus we have 27,000 fewer new jobs in September than in August.
Matt then posted this:
the ADP report out this morning says there was a net gain of 162,000 jobs in September (PDF). Now that's all preliminary and maybe it won't hold up. But this—rather than long and variable lags—is what I'd expect to see from QE 3.
Wow. And I thought I was a QE bear!
Now Matt's overall point is that when (if) the Fed is playing the expectations game, we might expect to see things change quickly if they are successful rather than having to wait for a mechanical chain of events to slowly unwind over time.
I even agree that what our economy needs now is a jump from what Tyler calls the "low trust" state to a "high trust" state and that maybe Fed jawboning can help us make that jump.
But I have to question pointing to a slower rate of job growth as evidence that we are jumping.